Thomas Palley

Abstract. This note responds to Arne Heise’s critque of my article on Keynes’s denial of conflict in The General Theory. Heise’s response fails to show Keynes addressed conflict and makes several meritless criticisms regarding my treatment of Keynes and Keynesianism. It also fails to recognize the purpose of my article which was to show conflict is an essential part of capitalism; conflict is absent in Keynes’ magnum opus; conflict is absent in Neo- and New Keynesianism; though Kalecki introduced conflict in Keynesianism, much more remains to be done about recognizing its implications; and calling for revival of the economics of Keynes in bad times keeps policy locked in the orbit of stimulus and blocks recognition of need for policies addressing the economic consequences of conflict.

Keywords: conflict, Keynes, The General Theory, Kalecki, Neo-Keynesianism, New Keynesianism.

This paper presents a new formulation of conflict inflation labeled the “pass-through” approach, which contrasts with the existing “pressure balance” approach. The model generates Phillips styled inflation – unemployment dynamics that are a hybrid of Keynesian and NAIRU dynamics. Conflict inflation arises when economic activity rises above the consistent claims activity level, and it is subject to self-propelled conflict accelerationism. Immediately below that level, inflation holds constant at the expected rate. At low activity, accelerating disinflation can develop. Worker militancy, corporate aggressiveness, negative supply shocks, and upward commodity price shocks all contribute to conflict inflation. They do so via two channels. First, they increase the intensity of conflict by increasing the degree of income claims inconsistency. Second, they lower the activity level at which conflict inflation kicks in. Policy can affect the consistent claims economic activity threshold at which conflict inflation kicks in. However, there may be adverse interaction effects with aggregate demand. Conflict inflation is best addressed by unconventional policies, such as incomes policy. Institutional developments in the Neoliberal era have likely reduced the relevance of conflict inflation.

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