Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Varieties of capitalism and societal happiness: theory and empirics

Wednesday, September 25th, 2024

This paper investigates the impact of different varieties of capitalism (VoC) on societal happiness. It begins with a critique of Neoclassical welfare economics which emphasizes Pareto optimality, and it argues for focusing on reported societal happiness. The paper identifies five VoC. Using a sample of twenty-six high-income countries drawn from the 2020 World Happiness Report, the paper shows societal happiness is systematically impacted by variety of capitalism type. Social Democratic economies report higher happiness levels. The US benefits from its standing as global economic hegemon, but it still reports lower happiness than Liberal and Social Democratic economies owing to its adverse societal relations. The public policy implication is the Social Democratic variety of capitalism produces greater societal happiness. More generally, happiness analysis can fill a gap in VoC theory and strengthen it by providing an operational form of welfare analysis. Making happiness the focus of attention will also likely change how economists interpret economies, which stands to change both economic theory and policy.

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Neoliberalism and the Drift to Proto-Fascism: Political and Economic Causes of the Crisis of Liberal Democracy

Saturday, September 7th, 2024

Neoliberalism is a political economic philosophy consisting of two claims, one economic and the other political. The economic claim is laissez-faire is the best way to organize economic activity as it generates efficient outcomes that maximize well-being. The political claim is free markets promote individual liberty. This article argues both claims are problematic. The evidence from the Neoliberal era shows Neoliberalism has undercut shared prosperity and unleashed illiberal forces that threaten liberty. The article distinguishes between the first political turn which established Neoliberal political hegemony, and the second political turn toward proto-fascism now underway. The second turn is being driven by a collection of factors which have created a demand for proto-fascism and weakened the defenses against alt-right ideas. Those factors include socio-economic disembedding, institutional destruction and political disembedding, increased economic inequality that tilts political power, transformation of attitudes to government and governance, transformation of economic identity, and behavioral transformation that celebrates sociopathic egotism. The Third Way’s capture of center-left politics means liberal elites occupy the political place that should be held by true opponents of Neoliberalism. Those elites obstruct the politics needed to reverse the deep causes of the drift to proto-fascism. Ironically, that makes them a real danger.

Keywords: Neoliberalism, proto-fascism, disembedding, inequality, identity, behavior

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Paul Davidson (1930-2024) and the founding of Post Keynesian economics

Monday, August 5th, 2024

Paul Davidson was a critical figure in the preservation of John Maynard Keynes’s ideas, sticking with them when they were out of fashion. He was also key to the survival of the Post Keynesian school. Davidson endorsed Keynes’s liquidity preference theory of interest, and he emphasized fundamental uncertainty as a central feature of economic reality, essential to making sense of a monetary economy. His greatest legacy is the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, the intellectual home for a generation of Post Keynesian economists. Without his efforts, the heterodox economics community would be significantly smaller than it is now.

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The military-industrial complex as a variety of capitalism and threat to democracy: rethinking the political economy of guns versus butter

Wednesday, June 12th, 2024

This paper examines the military-industrial complex (MIC), which is a prototype widely imitated by other business sectors. Collectively, they constitute a variety of capitalism which can be termed the poly-industrial complex (PIC). Understanding the MIC is critical to understanding contemporary US capitalism, US international policy, and the drift toward Cold War II. The MIC exerts a massive societal impact. It twists economic activity toward military spending; twists the character of technical progress; is socially corrosive via its capture of politics and government; twists societal understanding of geopolitics to increase demand for war services; promotes militarism and increases the likelihood of war; and promotes proto-fascist drift because militarism drips back into national politics. Given those features, the MIC is of first-order significance and the consequences of failure to understand it are likely to be grim. Politics is at the center of possibilities for change. That raises questions whether the demand for change can be mustered, and whether the political system will permit it.

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Keynes’ denial of conflict: a reply to Professor Heise’s critique

Saturday, April 13th, 2024

Abstract. This note responds to Arne Heise’s critque of my article on Keynes’s denial of conflict in The General Theory. Heise’s response fails to show Keynes addressed conflict and makes several meritless criticisms regarding my treatment of Keynes and Keynesianism. It also fails to recognize the purpose of my article which was to show conflict is an essential part of capitalism; conflict is absent in Keynes’ magnum opus; conflict is absent in Neo- and New Keynesianism; though Kalecki introduced conflict in Keynesianism, much more remains to be done about recognizing its implications; and calling for revival of the economics of Keynes in bad times keeps policy locked in the orbit of stimulus and blocks recognition of need for policies addressing the economic consequences of conflict.

Keywords: conflict, Keynes, The General Theory, Kalecki, Neo-Keynesianism, New Keynesianism.

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Rethinking conflict inflation: the hybrid Keynesian – NAIRU character of the conflict Phillips curve

Thursday, April 11th, 2024

This paper presents a new formulation of conflict inflation labeled the “pass-through” approach, which contrasts with the existing “pressure balance” approach. The model generates Phillips styled inflation – unemployment dynamics that are a hybrid of Keynesian and NAIRU dynamics. Conflict inflation arises when economic activity rises above the consistent claims activity level, and it is subject to self-propelled conflict accelerationism. Immediately below that level, inflation holds constant at the expected rate. At low activity, accelerating disinflation can develop. Worker militancy, corporate aggressiveness, negative supply shocks, and upward commodity price shocks all contribute to conflict inflation. They do so via two channels. First, they increase the intensity of conflict by increasing the degree of income claims inconsistency. Second, they lower the activity level at which conflict inflation kicks in. Policy can affect the consistent claims economic activity threshold at which conflict inflation kicks in. However, there may be adverse interaction effects with aggregate demand. Conflict inflation is best addressed by unconventional policies, such as incomes policy. Institutional developments in the Neoliberal era have likely reduced the relevance of conflict inflation.

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The theory of monetary disorder: debt finance, existing assets, and the consequences of prolonged monetized budget deficits and ultra-easy monetary policy

Wednesday, November 1st, 2023

This paper introduces the notion of monetary disorder. The underlying theory rests on a twin circuits view of the macro economy. The idea of monetary disorder has relevance for understanding the experience and consequences of the recent decade-long period of monetized large budget deficits and ultra-easy monetary policy. Current policy rests on Keynesian logic whereby a large fall in aggregate demand warrants robust offsetting monetary and fiscal policy actions. That logic neglects potential monetary disorder being bred within the financial circuit in the form of inflated asset prices and leveraged balance sheets. That disorder is likely to develop long before inflation accelerates so that inflation targeting fails to protect against it. Political factors increase the policy danger as the benefits of disorder are front-loaded and the costs backloaded. The paper concludes with a policy discussion regarding how to prevent Keynesian goods market counter-cyclical stabilization policy from causing monetary disorder.

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The menace of the myth of General Pinochet’s Chilean economic miracle

Saturday, September 9th, 2023

September 11, 2023, marks the fiftieth anniversary of General Pinochet’s military coup against Chilean President Salvador Allende. While it is now widely recognized that Pinochet authorized large-scale human rights abuses, there is an accompanying narrative that he also unleashed an economic miracle via embrace of Milton Friedman’s “Chicago Boys” vision of a market economy.

The “Pinochet economic miracle” narrative is profoundly misleading. Worse yet, it is a political menace for two reasons. First, it risks tacitly promoting the notion that dictatorship may be legitimate to the extent it offers a road to prosperity. Second, the Pinochet regime embraced Neoliberalism which promotes anti-democratic tendencies by fracturing society. The claim of a Pinochet economic miracle lends support to Neoliberalism, thereby encouraging acceptance of Neoliberalism despite its anti-democratic proclivities.

For those reasons, debate over Pinochet’s economic policy remains of vital importance. The fiftieth anniversary of Pinochet’s coup is an opportunity to challenge the pernicious miracle myth which is increasingly part of the conventional wisdom.

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Broadening the application of hysteresis in economics: institutions, policy lock-in, psychology, identity, and ideas

Wednesday, August 9th, 2023

This paper argues for broadening the application of hysteresis to institutions, policy lock-in, psychology, identity, and economic ideas. Hysteresis is an element of historical processes, and the real world is historical. That explains why hysteresis is pervasive and important. Hysteresis should be a fundamental building block of political economy. Expanding its application in economics is both an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is that it provides a means for incorporating political, sociological, and psychological forces which economics tends to neglect. That will enrich economics and can also provide a mutually enriching bridge to other social sciences. The challenge is introducing such concerns raises questions about the character of economics’ knowledge claims, which is likely to trigger resistance from economists.

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The forgotten case against Milton Friedman: an interview about inflation and the Phillips curve

Saturday, May 13th, 2023

Milton Friedman revolutionized macroeconomics with his 1967 presidential speech to the American Economics Association (AEA), which presented a theory of the so-called natural rate of unemployment for the first time. That speech, which played a major role in discrediting the brand of Keynesianism that prevailed in postwar liberal economic policy thinking, remains one of the most frequently cited papers in all of economics.

Much less well remembered is the rebuttal to Friedman’s ideas issued by another future Nobel Laureate economist in another AEA presidential address, four years later: Yale University’s James Tobin. Tobin’s dueling theory of inflation held out the possibility of an alternative path for economics and macroeconomic policy, but it has seldom received the same recognition, or the same scholarly interest.

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