This paper explores the deep causes of the Ukraine – Russia war. It argues that the war has both internal and external causes. The internal causes are rooted in the way the Soviet Union disintegrated. The external causes relate to how the US exploited the fractures in the post-Soviet order to advance its geopolitical agenda aimed at establishing US global hegemony. The war has devastated Ukraine. The capture of Ukrainian politics by extremist nationalists prevented a compromise that addressed the political and demographic reality of post-Soviet Ukraine. In doing so, the nationalists made Ukraine a sacrificial pawn in the US project seeking global hegemony, with fateful consequences that may yet worsen further. Georgia’s frozen conflict with Russia has some structural similarities. That said, Georgia can avoid Ukraine’s fate by choosing a path of non-alignment. That will not be easy as the US is likely to try and sabotage that path, as non-alignment tacitly challenges US hegemony.
Archive for the ‘Europe’ Category
The Ukraine – Russia war explained: how the US exploited internal fractures in the post-Soviet order (plus lessons for Georgia)
Sunday, November 10th, 2024Neoliberalism and the Drift to Proto-Fascism: Political and Economic Causes of the Crisis of Liberal Democracy
Saturday, September 7th, 2024Neoliberalism is a political economic philosophy consisting of two claims, one economic and the other political. The economic claim is laissez-faire is the best way to organize economic activity as it generates efficient outcomes that maximize well-being. The political claim is free markets promote individual liberty. This article argues both claims are problematic. The evidence from the Neoliberal era shows Neoliberalism has undercut shared prosperity and unleashed illiberal forces that threaten liberty. The article distinguishes between the first political turn which established Neoliberal political hegemony, and the second political turn toward proto-fascism now underway. The second turn is being driven by a collection of factors which have created a demand for proto-fascism and weakened the defenses against alt-right ideas. Those factors include socio-economic disembedding, institutional destruction and political disembedding, increased economic inequality that tilts political power, transformation of attitudes to government and governance, transformation of economic identity, and behavioral transformation that celebrates sociopathic egotism. The Third Way’s capture of center-left politics means liberal elites occupy the political place that should be held by true opponents of Neoliberalism. Those elites obstruct the politics needed to reverse the deep causes of the drift to proto-fascism. Ironically, that makes them a real danger.
Keywords: Neoliberalism, proto-fascism, disembedding, inequality, identity, behavior
Ukraine’s Hiroshima moment is drawing closer (the consequences of Neocon madness)
Wednesday, August 21st, 2024In August 1945, the US atom bombed the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Since then, nuclear weapons have never been used in conflict. That may soon change as Ukraine faces the increasing likelihood of a Hiroshima moment.
Conditions in Ukraine increasingly give Russia military and geopolitical cause to use tactical nuclear weapons. Though Russia will use them, the US and NATO are deeply implicated in the process. They are in the grip of Neocon madness which casually dismisses potentially catastrophic consequences and blocks all off-ramps.
Lessons from Hiroshima and Nagasaki
One way to understand the current moment is via the history of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. Those attacks also had military and geopolitical motivations. The former is widely recognized: the latter is not.
(more…)Europe’s foreign policy has been hacked and the consequences are dire
Tuesday, February 13th, 2024Europe’s foreign policy has been hacked and captured by US Neocon interests. That capture poses a dire threat to both European democracy and global security. The threat to global security is because Europe is now captive in the US Neocon war on China and Russia. The threat to democracy comes from European voters gradually intuiting they have been sold out, which helps explain their turn against the political establishment.
The consequences of hacking are simple and dire, but exposing it is difficult. The status quo is privileged and there is resistance to acknowledging unpleasant facts. This essay presents those facts.
What is Neoconservatism and who are the Neocons?
The starting point is understanding Neoconservatism and the Neocons. The former is a US political doctrine which rose to ascendancy in the 1990s. It holds that never again shall there be a foreign power, like the former Soviet Union, which can challenge US global hegemony. The doctrine gives the US the right to impose its will anywhere in the world, which explains why the US has over 750 bases in 80 countries, ringing both Russia and China.
(more…)The corruption of US foreign policy & weaponization of antisemitism
Tuesday, January 2nd, 2024Below are three brilliant articles and one interview that help understand geopolitics at the beginning of 2024. In my view, they should be read by anyone interested in the geopolitical situation & should be required reading for students of international relations and international political economy:
US Foreign Policy is a Scam Built on Corruption, Jeffrey Sachs, Common Dreams, December 26, 2023.
Two Cheers for Isolationism, Jeff Faux, The Nation, November 17, 2023.
Please share (or even tweet) these items.
Ukraine destroyed the Kakhovka dam: a forensic assessment
Tuesday, July 4th, 2023The Kakhovka dam was a massive two-mile-long structure that dammed the Dnieper River which bisects Ukraine. It was built by the Soviet Union in 1956 and raised the Dnieper by 16 meters (52 feet), creating the Kakhovka Reservoir. The dam was destroyed on 6 June 2023, resulting in massive flooding downstream on both sides of the river which created a social and environmental disaster. The city of Kherson, located near the river’s mouth with the Black Sea, was also flooded.
Both Ukraine and Russia deny blowing up the dam and blame the other. At this stage, all the evidence is circumstantial and conjectural, but a forensic assessment of that evidence overwhelmingly suggests Ukraine destroyed the dam. Despite that, US and Western European politicians and media have uniformly sought to implicate Russia as the perpetrator.
In multiple ways, the dam’s destruction echoes the 2022 destruction of the Russian-owned Nord Stream 2 pipeline. That pipeline was a piece of civilian infrastructure; was destroyed by an explosion; its destruction caused a massive environmental disaster; Ukraine denies any role; many European governments claimed Russia had blown up its own pipeline; and Western media either explicitly claimed Russia had done it (Time) or tendentiously sought to implicate Russia (New York Times, Guardian).
(more…)Causes and consequences of the Ukraine conflict: an eight-point primer
Sunday, March 19th, 2023(1) The origins of the Ukraine conflict lie in the ambitions of US Neocons. Those ambitions threatened Russian national security by fuelling eastward expansion of NATO and anti-Russian regime change in the Republics of the former Soviet Union.
(2) The Ukraine conflict is now a proxy war. The US is using Ukraine to attack and weaken Russia.
(3) Russia will eventually prevail. We may already be approaching “game over” because Ukraine’s forces have been eviscerated. Ukraine is now press-ganging military conscripts in Kiev and Lviv.
(4) Once Russia imposes its will, the US will be forced to step back but it will have achieved its strategic goal of weakening Russia and separating Western Europe (especially Germany) from Russia.
(5) Ukraine will be effectively destroyed. It will be half-occupied by Russia; hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will have died; millions will have fled; and the Ukrainian Nazis will be in charge of what is left.
(6) We have all been played by the Biden administration and the US Neocons.
The biggest losers are the ordinary people of Ukraine. They were cheated by the US Neocons of the possibility of a peaceful accord with Russia.
But we have all lost, especially Western Europe. Higher inflation and energy prices today; lost future economic opportunities; a worsened outlook for climate change; a dangerously deteriorated global security outlook that includes risk of nuclear war; and renewed militarism that will disfigure our societies for decades to come.
(7) Western Europe’s political elites are deeply culpable for their capitulation to US Neocon pressures.
(8) The US is guilty of covertly provoking the war. But it will never be charged because this is a proxy war and it tacitly controls the International Court in The Hague. Instead, the court is being politically pressured to indict Russia, the goal being to foster anti-Russian public sentiment and make a political settlement more difficult. However, that also diminishes the court’s international legitimacy and standing.
Deglobalization, conflict, & the self-inflicted threat to democracy: consequences of US imperial over-reach
Wednesday, December 14th, 2022Because of the seriousness of the world situation, I have decided to get back in the business of doing interviews (which I do not enjoy doing). Here is a link to my interview (13/12/2022) on RT CrossTalk discussing “New Globalization?”
In that connection, here is a link to a paper (written in 2018) titled “The Fracturing of Globalization: Implications of Economic Resentments and Geopolitical Contradictions”. It significantly anticipated and predicted recent global political economic developments.
The false promise and bitter fruit of Neoliberalism: political economic disembedding, cultural transformation, and the rise of proto-fascist politics
Tuesday, October 11th, 2022Neoliberalism is a political economic philosophy that consists of two claims, one economic and the other political. The economic claim is free market laissez-faire economies are the best way to organize economic activity as they generate efficient outcomes that maximize well-being. The political claim is free market economic arrangements promote individual liberty. This paper argues both claims are problematic. The evidence from the forty-year experiment that began in 1980 shows Neoliberalism has undercut shared prosperity and unleashed illiberal forces that threaten liberty. The paper distinguishes between the first political turn which saw the establishment of Neoliberal political hegemony, and the second political turn toward proto-fascism that we are now experiencing. The second turn is being driven by a collection of factors which have created a demand for proto-fascism and weakened the defenses against alt-right ideas. Those factors include socio-economic disembedding, institutional destruction and political disembedding, increased economic inequality that tilts political power, transformation of attitudes to government and governance, transformation of economic identity, and cultural transformation that celebrates sociopathic egotism. The Third Way’s capture of center-left politics means liberal elites occupy the political place that should be held by true opponents of Neoliberalism. Those liberal elites obstruct the politics needed to reverse the deep causes of the drift to proto-fascism. Ironically, that makes those elites a real danger.
Sabotaging Germany, blaming Russia: another view of the Nord Stream pipeline attack
Saturday, October 1st, 2022Imagine Moscow was nuked yesterday, and this morning The New York Times ran a frontpage headline “Moscow nuked: Russia proves its hostility to Europe again”. Sounds pretty crazy? Yet, in a manner of speaking, that is what happened last week.
On Tuesday September 27th three major leaks caused by undersea explosions were discovered in the Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia and Germany. The New York Times evening e-mail briefing, which is sent to nine million readers, headlined “suspicion of Russian sabotage”. The Wednesday European edition ran a similar headline accompanied by comments about the attacks proving Russian aggression against Europe.
The same take echoed in the UK. The conservative Telegraph newspaper ran a headline “Nord Stream sabotage mapped: how Putin could have carried out the attack” along with a photo of Vladimir Putin in a submersible. Meanwhile, the progressive Guardian ran a headline about a “new phase of hybrid war” against Europe with the sub-title accusing Russia of suspected sabotage.
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