Thomas Palley

This statement is submitted in connection with the Joint Committee’s deliberations on the European Union’s (EU) legislative proposals COM(2025)122 and COM(2025)123. Those two measures aim to increase EU member state military expenditures and weapons production. They raise multiple serious concerns regarding the merits thereof, including gravely exacerbating the existing Ukraine conflict and making a peace settlement even more difficult to achieve. They will also contribute to cementing the EU on a path of massively increased military expenditures, which will inevitably displace and diminish other forms of needed government spending owing to the fiscal constraints confronting member states. Worst of all, they could contribute to EU member states becoming directly involved in the Ukraine conflict, thereby bringing the conflict inside the EU. Consequently, Ireland should vigorously oppose the two measures as they are neither in Ireland’s national interest nor in the collective interest of the European Union.

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In her book The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam, the historian Barbara Tuchman explores the perplexing question of why countries sometimes pursue policies that are fundamentally contrary to their own interests. That question has acquired renewed relevance as Europe has now enlisted in a deepening march of folly over Ukraine.

Failure to reject the march of folly will have grave consequences for Europe, but doing so is a huge political challenge. It requires explaining how Europe has been harmed by its Ukraine policy; how Europe stands to be further harmed by doubling-down on that policy; how the march of folly has been sold politically; and why the political establishment persists therewith.

This paper explores the deep causes of the Ukraine – Russia war. It argues that the war has both internal and external causes. The internal causes are rooted in the way the Soviet Union disintegrated. The external causes relate to how the US exploited the fractures in the post-Soviet order to advance its geopolitical agenda aimed at establishing US global hegemony. The war has devastated Ukraine. The capture of Ukrainian politics by extremist nationalists prevented a compromise that addressed the political and demographic reality of post-Soviet Ukraine. In doing so, the nationalists made Ukraine a sacrificial pawn in the US project seeking global hegemony, with fateful consequences that may yet worsen further. Georgia’s frozen conflict with Russia has some structural similarities. That said, Georgia can avoid Ukraine’s fate by choosing a path of non-alignment. That will not be easy as the US is likely to try and sabotage that path, as non-alignment tacitly challenges US hegemony.

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