There is widespread recognition that the financial crisis which triggered the Great Recession was significantly due to financial excess, particularly regarding real estate lending. Now, policymakers are looking to reform the financial system in hope of avoiding future crises. But like the drunk who looks for his lost keys under the lamp post because that is where the light is, policymakers remain fixated on capital standards because that is what is already in place. (more…)
Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category
A Better Way to Regulate Financial Markets: Asset Based Reserve Requirements
Monday, November 16th, 2009Death by Renminbi
Monday, November 9th, 2009Washington, DC – Over the last several weeks, the dollar’s depreciation against the euro and yen has grabbed global attention. In a normal world, the dollar’s weakening would be welcome, as it would help the United States come to grips with its unsustainable trade deficit. But, in a world where China links its currency to the dollar at an under-valued parity, the dollar’s depreciation risks major global economic damage that will further complicate recovery from the current worldwide recession. (more…)
A Second Great Depression Is Still Possible
Monday, October 12th, 2009Over the past year the global economy has experienced a massive contraction, the deepest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. But this spring, economists started talking of “green shoots” of recovery and that optimistic assessment quickly spread to Wall Street. More recently, on the anniversary of the Lehman Brothers crash, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke officially blessed this consensus by declaring the recession is “very likely over”. (more…)
Letter to the Queen: Why No One Predicted the Crisis
Thursday, July 30th, 2009Her Majesty The Queen
Buckingham Palace
London
SW1A 1AA
29 July 2009
MADAM,
In response to your question why no one predicted the crisis you have recently received a letter from Professors Tim Besley and Peter Hennessy, sent on behalf of the British Academy. They claim economists’ failure to foresee the crisis was the result of a “failure of the collective imagination.” That claim is tendentious and will mislead you. (more…)
Cut Interest Rates Again
Friday, October 17th, 2008The recent massive sell-off in global stock markets, despite an earlier coordinated half-point interest rate reduction in the U.S. and Europe, reflects the continuing failure of policy to come to grips with the scale of the problem. Policy has been consistently marked by “Too little, too late” – and in some instances there have been outright blunders, as in the U.S. Treasury’s decision to let Lehman Brothers fail. (more…)
Why Federal Reserve Policy Is Failing
Monday, October 6th, 2008The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury continue to fail in their attempts to stabilize the U.S. financial system. That is due to failure to grasp the nature of the problem, which concerns the parallel banking system. Rescue policy remains stuck in the past, focused on the traditional banking system while ignoring the parallel unregulated system that was permitted to develop over the past twenty-five years. (more…)
Saving the Financial System
Thursday, September 25th, 2008A friend told me the economist Charles Kindelberger had two rules for a credit economy. Rule one was everybody should know that if they get over-extended they will not be bailed-out. Rule two was if everybody gets over-extended they must be bailed out. The U.S. economy has over-extended itself, triggering rule two. But that still leaves open how a bailout should be designed since designs are not all equal. (more…)
The Liquidation Trap
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008The U.S. financial system is caught in a destructive liquidation trap that has falling asset prices cause financial distress, in turn compelling further asset sales and price declines. If unaddressed, it risks sending the economy into deep recession – or even depression. (more…)
Decoupling vs. the Concertina Effect
Monday, September 8th, 2008Over the last year, as the U.S. economy has slipped toward (and likely into) recession, there has been much talk of decoupling. According to this idea the global economy has decoupled from the U.S. economy and can continue growing even if the U.S. goes into recession. (more…)
Speculators at the Pumps
Tuesday, August 26th, 2008Until a few weeks ago, while oil prices were surging, debate raged about the relative roles of economic fundamentals and speculation in boosting oil prices. Although oil prices have now fallen back from their peak, that debate must not be forgotten, for it has profound policy implications that government officials would be derelict to ignore. (more…)