This paper examines the military-industrial complex (MIC), which is a prototype widely imitated by other business sectors. Collectively, they constitute a variety of capitalism which can be termed the poly-industrial complex (PIC). Understanding the MIC is critical to understanding contemporary US capitalism, US international policy, and the drift toward Cold War II. The MIC exerts a massive societal impact. It twists economic activity toward military spending; twists the character of technical progress; is socially corrosive via its capture of politics and government; twists societal understanding of geopolitics to increase demand for war services; promotes militarism and increases the likelihood of war; and promotes proto-fascist drift because militarism drips back into national politics. Given those features, the MIC is of first-order significance and the consequences of failure to understand it are likely to be grim. Politics is at the center of possibilities for change. That raises questions whether the demand for change can be mustered, and whether the political system will permit it.
The military-industrial complex as a variety of capitalism and threat to democracy: rethinking the political economy of guns versus butter
June 12th, 2024Gaza in context: past, present, & future
May 18th, 2024Ilan Pappé is a brilliant Israeli historian & his scholarship exemplifies the meaning and importance of intellectual integrity. Below is a link to his talk titled “Gaza in context: past, present, & future”. I urge you to watch it & share it (the talk runs from minute 28 to minute 76). We all abhor Holocaust denialism. In that spirit, we have an obligation to confront denialism in other historical contexts.
Keynes’ denial of conflict: a reply to Professor Heise’s critique
April 13th, 2024Abstract. This note responds to Arne Heise’s critque of my article on Keynes’s denial of conflict in The General Theory. Heise’s response fails to show Keynes addressed conflict and makes several meritless criticisms regarding my treatment of Keynes and Keynesianism. It also fails to recognize the purpose of my article which was to show conflict is an essential part of capitalism; conflict is absent in Keynes’ magnum opus; conflict is absent in Neo- and New Keynesianism; though Kalecki introduced conflict in Keynesianism, much more remains to be done about recognizing its implications; and calling for revival of the economics of Keynes in bad times keeps policy locked in the orbit of stimulus and blocks recognition of need for policies addressing the economic consequences of conflict.
Keywords: conflict, Keynes, The General Theory, Kalecki, Neo-Keynesianism, New Keynesianism.
Read the rest of this entry »Rethinking conflict inflation: the hybrid Keynesian – NAIRU character of the conflict Phillips curve
April 11th, 2024This paper presents a new formulation of conflict inflation labeled the “pass-through” approach, which contrasts with the existing “pressure balance” approach. The model generates Phillips styled inflation – unemployment dynamics that are a hybrid of Keynesian and NAIRU dynamics. Conflict inflation arises when economic activity rises above the consistent claims activity level, and it is subject to self-propelled conflict accelerationism. Immediately below that level, inflation holds constant at the expected rate. At low activity, accelerating disinflation can develop. Worker militancy, corporate aggressiveness, negative supply shocks, and upward commodity price shocks all contribute to conflict inflation. They do so via two channels. First, they increase the intensity of conflict by increasing the degree of income claims inconsistency. Second, they lower the activity level at which conflict inflation kicks in. Policy can affect the consistent claims economic activity threshold at which conflict inflation kicks in. However, there may be adverse interaction effects with aggregate demand. Conflict inflation is best addressed by unconventional policies, such as incomes policy. Institutional developments in the Neoliberal era have likely reduced the relevance of conflict inflation.
Europe’s foreign policy has been hacked and the consequences are dire
February 13th, 2024Europe’s foreign policy has been hacked and captured by US Neocon interests. That capture poses a dire threat to both European democracy and global security. The threat to global security is because Europe is now captive in the US Neocon war on China and Russia. The threat to democracy comes from European voters gradually intuiting they have been sold out, which helps explain their turn against the political establishment.
The consequences of hacking are simple and dire, but exposing it is difficult. The status quo is privileged and there is resistance to acknowledging unpleasant facts. This essay presents those facts.
What is Neoconservatism and who are the Neocons?
The starting point is understanding Neoconservatism and the Neocons. The former is a US political doctrine which rose to ascendancy in the 1990s. It holds that never again shall there be a foreign power, like the former Soviet Union, which can challenge US global hegemony. The doctrine gives the US the right to impose its will anywhere in the world, which explains why the US has over 750 bases in 80 countries, ringing both Russia and China.
Read the rest of this entry »Israel’s genocide, US assistance, and consequences thereof
January 15th, 2024South Africa has now presented its charge of Israeli genocide in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and Israel has presented its rebuttal. Regardless of the ultimate judgment, a page has been turned. Israel’s actions in Gaza, assisted by the US, have changed the geopolitical landscape. The consequences stand to be dire and lasting.
The case against Israel
The case against Israel is stark and simple. The argument in descending order of import is as follows.
First, and foremost, is Israel’s disproportionate response and application of collective punishment. Hamas is a criminal terrorist organization, not a state. Israel has a right to appropriate self-defense, but it has no right to kill vast swathes of non-combatant Palestinians as it tries to combat a criminal organization. The indiscriminate killing constitutes a war crime and crime against humanity. It becomes genocidal when paired with denial of means of survival.
Read the rest of this entry »The corruption of US foreign policy & weaponization of antisemitism
January 2nd, 2024Below are three brilliant articles and one interview that help understand geopolitics at the beginning of 2024. In my view, they should be read by anyone interested in the geopolitical situation & should be required reading for students of international relations and international political economy:
US Foreign Policy is a Scam Built on Corruption, Jeffrey Sachs, Common Dreams, December 26, 2023.
Two Cheers for Isolationism, Jeff Faux, The Nation, November 17, 2023.
Please share (or even tweet) these items.
The theory of monetary disorder: debt finance, existing assets, and the consequences of prolonged monetized budget deficits and ultra-easy monetary policy
November 1st, 2023This paper introduces the notion of monetary disorder. The underlying theory rests on a twin circuits view of the macro economy. The idea of monetary disorder has relevance for understanding the experience and consequences of the recent decade-long period of monetized large budget deficits and ultra-easy monetary policy. Current policy rests on Keynesian logic whereby a large fall in aggregate demand warrants robust offsetting monetary and fiscal policy actions. That logic neglects potential monetary disorder being bred within the financial circuit in the form of inflated asset prices and leveraged balance sheets. That disorder is likely to develop long before inflation accelerates so that inflation targeting fails to protect against it. Political factors increase the policy danger as the benefits of disorder are front-loaded and the costs backloaded. The paper concludes with a policy discussion regarding how to prevent Keynesian goods market counter-cyclical stabilization policy from causing monetary disorder.
The menace of the myth of General Pinochet’s Chilean economic miracle
September 9th, 2023September 11, 2023, marks the fiftieth anniversary of General Pinochet’s military coup against Chilean President Salvador Allende. While it is now widely recognized that Pinochet authorized large-scale human rights abuses, there is an accompanying narrative that he also unleashed an economic miracle via embrace of Milton Friedman’s “Chicago Boys” vision of a market economy.
The “Pinochet economic miracle” narrative is profoundly misleading. Worse yet, it is a political menace for two reasons. First, it risks tacitly promoting the notion that dictatorship may be legitimate to the extent it offers a road to prosperity. Second, the Pinochet regime embraced Neoliberalism which promotes anti-democratic tendencies by fracturing society. The claim of a Pinochet economic miracle lends support to Neoliberalism, thereby encouraging acceptance of Neoliberalism despite its anti-democratic proclivities.
For those reasons, debate over Pinochet’s economic policy remains of vital importance. The fiftieth anniversary of Pinochet’s coup is an opportunity to challenge the pernicious miracle myth which is increasingly part of the conventional wisdom.
Read the rest of this entry »Broadening the application of hysteresis in economics: institutions, policy lock-in, psychology, identity, and ideas
August 9th, 2023This paper argues for broadening the application of hysteresis to institutions, policy lock-in, psychology, identity, and economic ideas. Hysteresis is an element of historical processes, and the real world is historical. That explains why hysteresis is pervasive and important. Hysteresis should be a fundamental building block of political economy. Expanding its application in economics is both an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is that it provides a means for incorporating political, sociological, and psychological forces which economics tends to neglect. That will enrich economics and can also provide a mutually enriching bridge to other social sciences. The challenge is introducing such concerns raises questions about the character of economics’ knowledge claims, which is likely to trigger resistance from economists.