I could not get this op-ed (written November 6, 2019) published as it was a mix of too dull & didactic, and too partisan or not partisan enough. Anyway, in the wake of the election, I think it was analytically spot on so I have decided to post it. Also, it makes clear the very special circumstances of the UK election. It is a gross distortion to extrapolate from the UK to the US. Unfortunately, that is exactly what elite US media (e.g. New York Times) and neoliberal Democrats are now doing.
Opinion polls are predicting the Conservative Party will romp home in the UK’s upcoming general election. Unfortunately, given the party’s current extremist inclinations, that stands to transform the UK into a neoliberal hot zone and also dissolve the UK within a decade.
The costs of a Conservative win
A Conservative majority government will quickly implement a Brexit that inflicts significant economic and political injury. Additionally, it will double-down on neoliberalism which has already done so much damage.
One set of costs concerns the deepening of neoliberal policies that push austerity and increase income inequality. The other set of costs concerns Brexit.
There is widespread agreement Brexit will inflict permanent injury on the UK economy. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research estimates the UK economy will be 3.5 percent smaller by 2029 relative to remaining in the EU.
The political damage stands to be equally dire. Brexit waves a green flag for breaking-up the UK. First, having the UK leave a major political economic union legitimizes others doing so. Second, Johnson’s Brexit agreement partitions the UK by placing Northern Ireland in a separate international jurisdiction. Third, Scotland is strongly Remain so that Brexit will exacerbate alienation from Westminster. The clear implication is Brexit will fuel Scottish nationalism, making separation within a decade the likely outcome.
Ironically, the UK is Remain and social democratic
Ironically, majority opinion in the UK leans against Brexit and is significantly social democratic. Opinion polls suggest Brexit would be defeated in a second referendum by a margin of about 52 to 48 percent. Majority opinion is also social democratic as evidenced by the fact that the Labor, Liberal Democrat, and Scottish National Parties have together historically averaged slightly over fifty-five percent of all votes.
Despite that, the UK appears headed in the opposite direction. The core reason is the long-standing problem of the “first past the post” system. As the party with the largest bloc vote, the Conservatives win more seats even though their vote is less than the combined Labor – Liberal Democrat vote.
That is now compounded by Brexit which has the Conservatives attracting pro-Brexit Labor voters, while Labor’s ambiguous Brexit position is causing some Labor Remainers to defect to the Liberal Democrats.
The fundamental problem is British politics confronts two questions: the Brexit question and the social democracy versus neoliberalism question. Those questions need to be answered sequentially, with Brexit being decided first. Boris Johnson has cleverly blocked that, while Jeremy Corbyn has willfully resisted accepting it.
Johnson’s strategy
The UK is divided on Brexit and social democracy. Johnson has positioned the Conservatives as the “Brexit means Brexit” neoliberal party. His Brexit stance inoculates the Conservatives against the UKIP challenge from the right. It also attracts pro-Brexit Labor voters who place Brexit ahead of the social democracy question.
Furthermore, Johnson benefits from the likelihood many Conservative Remainers will prioritize money (i.e. low taxes) over Brexit and stick with him for wallet reasons.
Corbyn’s misconceived counter
Whereas Johnson’s strategy makes Brexit the focus, Corbyn’s strategy makes the election about social democracy versus neoliberalism. The Brexit question is addressed via a post-election second referendum.
However, that fails to regain pro-Brexit Labor voters who have defected to Johnson, and nor does it give Conservative Remainers sufficient incentive to vote tactically against Johnson. Perhaps because of his own Brexit ambivalence, Corbyn has failed to realize Labor is unlikely to win the social democracy versus neoliberalism question without first getting Brexit off the table. Promise of a post-election referendum fails to do that.
Remain has fallen short
The Remain movement has also fallen short. On the plus side it has pushed for a second referendum and solidified Remain support so that Remain now holds a small majority according to polls. However, it has failed to move the needle regarding converting Brexit supporters.
The costly consequences of exit have not gained traction. Arguments discrediting the original referendum by claiming the electorate was grossly misled, voters did not appreciate what was at stake, and democracies have a perennial right to reconsider have backfired. Instead, Brexit supporters just view Remainers as “bad losers.”
What must be done?
The essential challenge is to use the election to resolve the Brexit question, thereby clearing the way for the UK to engage the social democracy versus neoliberalism question. To that end, Labor and Liberal Democrats should announce they will form a national unity government whose sole purpose will be to hold a second referendum on Boris Johnson’s Brexit agreement. After a breathing period following the referendum, the unity government will call a second election.
Such an agreement has Labor and Liberal Democrats giving up little since neither is likely to form a majority government. Meanwhile, it transforms the election into a de facto referendum on whether a second Brexit referendum is needed, which is a winnable proposition. It gives Conservative Remainers reason to vote Liberal Democrat, or even Labor, knowing the debate on social democracy versus neoliberalism is still to come. Likewise, it gives Liberal Democrats tactical reason to vote Labor, and vice-versa.
Second, the argument for another referendum needs a simple persuasive metaphor. The Brexit referendum was akin to a decision to drive north. The country was told the road was in good condition. It now transpires the road leads over a political and economic cliff, making it sensible to reconsider. Arguing about the first referendum’s legitimacy has proven unpersuasive and should be avoided.
Third, as part of a unity agreement, Labor candidates should step down in constituencies Liberal Democrats can potentially win, and vice-versa. That is a step further than the tactical voting campaigns of People’s Vote and Best for Britain. It will be essential if the Conservatives and UKIP reach their own tactical accord on candidate stand-downs.
The obstruction is pride and arrogance. Labor’s pride blocks it from seeking an alliance, while Liberal Democrat arrogance has them thinking they should head the unity government.
A plea to Jeremy Corbyn
Mr. Corbyn, as currently framed, Labor has much more to lose than to gain from the election. If the Conservatives win, the UK will become a neoliberal hot zone and likely dissolve within a decade, social democracy will become a figment, and Labor will be permanently out of power.
Of course, you might pull-off a miracle win, but that smacks of a gambler’s wishful thinking. The responsible choice is to transform the election into a referendum on the need for a second Brexit referendum. That hugely increases your chances of winning, has Labor giving up little, and sets the stage for a subsequent election which can confront the deeper question of social democracy versus neoliberalism.