{"id":1814,"date":"2019-12-15T15:56:28","date_gmt":"2019-12-15T22:56:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/?p=1814"},"modified":"2019-12-15T19:21:07","modified_gmt":"2019-12-16T02:21:07","slug":"a-conservative-win-will-create-a-neoliberal-hot-zone-and-dissolve-the-uk-heres-how-to-stop-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/?p=1814","title":{"rendered":"A Conservative win will create a neoliberal hot zone and dissolve the UK: here\u2019s how to stop it"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I could not get this op-ed (written November 6, 2019) published as it was a mix of too dull & didactic, and too partisan or not partisan enough. Anyway, in the wake of the election, I think it was analytically spot on so I have decided to post it. Also, it makes clear the very special circumstances of the UK election. It is a gross distortion to extrapolate from the UK to the US. Unfortunately, that is exactly what elite US media (e.g. New York Times) and neoliberal Democrats are now doing. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opinion\npolls are predicting the Conservative Party will romp home in the UK\u2019s upcoming\ngeneral election. Unfortunately, given the party\u2019s current extremist\ninclinations, that stands to transform the UK into a neoliberal hot zone and also\ndissolve the UK within a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The costs of a Conservative\nwin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\nConservative majority government will quickly implement a Brexit that inflicts\nsignificant economic and political injury. Additionally, it will double-down on\nneoliberalism which has already done so much damage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

One\nset of costs concerns the deepening of neoliberal policies that push austerity\nand increase income inequality. The other set of costs concerns Brexit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\nis widespread agreement Brexit will inflict permanent injury on the UK economy.\nThe National Institute\nfor Economic and Social Research<\/a> estimates the UK economy will be 3.5\npercent smaller by 2029 relative to remaining in the EU. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\npolitical damage stands to be equally dire. Brexit waves a green flag for\nbreaking-up the UK. First, having the UK leave a major political economic union\nlegitimizes others doing so. Second, Johnson\u2019s Brexit agreement partitions the\nUK by placing Northern Ireland in a separate international jurisdiction. Third,\nScotland is strongly Remain so that Brexit will exacerbate alienation from\nWestminster. The clear implication is Brexit will fuel Scottish nationalism,\nmaking separation within a decade the likely outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ironically, the UK\nis Remain and social democratic<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ironically,\nmajority opinion in the UK leans against Brexit and is significantly social\ndemocratic. Opinion polls suggest Brexit would be defeated in a second\nreferendum by a margin of about 52\nto 48 percent<\/a>.\nMajority opinion is also social democratic as evidenced by the fact that the Labor,\nLiberal Democrat, and Scottish National Parties have together historically\naveraged slightly over fifty-five percent of all votes<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite\nthat, the UK appears headed in the opposite direction. The core reason is the\nlong-standing problem of the \u201cfirst past the post\u201d system. As the party with\nthe largest bloc vote, the Conservatives win more seats even though their vote\nis less than the combined Labor – Liberal Democrat vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\nis now compounded by Brexit which has the Conservatives attracting pro-Brexit\nLabor voters, while Labor\u2019s ambiguous Brexit position is causing some Labor\nRemainers to defect to the Liberal Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nfundamental problem is British politics confronts two questions: the Brexit\nquestion and the social democracy versus neoliberalism question. Those\nquestions need to be answered sequentially, with Brexit being decided first. Boris\nJohnson has cleverly blocked that, while Jeremy Corbyn has willfully resisted\naccepting it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johnson\u2019s strategy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nUK is divided on Brexit and social democracy. Johnson has positioned the\nConservatives as the \u201cBrexit means Brexit\u201d neoliberal party. His Brexit stance inoculates\nthe Conservatives against the UKIP challenge from the right. It also attracts pro-Brexit\nLabor voters who place Brexit ahead of the social democracy question. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore,\nJohnson benefits from the likelihood many Conservative Remainers will prioritize\nmoney (i.e. low taxes) over Brexit and stick with him for wallet reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corbyn\u2019s misconceived\ncounter<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whereas\nJohnson\u2019s strategy makes Brexit the focus, Corbyn\u2019s strategy makes the election\nabout social democracy versus neoliberalism. The Brexit question is addressed via\na post-election second referendum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However,\nthat fails to regain pro-Brexit Labor voters who have defected to Johnson, and\nnor does it give Conservative Remainers sufficient incentive to vote tactically\nagainst Johnson. Perhaps because of his own Brexit ambivalence, Corbyn has\nfailed to realize Labor is unlikely to win the social democracy versus\nneoliberalism question without first getting Brexit off the table. Promise of a\npost-election referendum fails to do that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remain has fallen\nshort<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nRemain movement has also fallen short. On the plus side it has pushed for a\nsecond referendum and solidified Remain support so that Remain now holds a\nsmall majority according to polls. However, it has failed to move the needle regarding\nconverting Brexit supporters<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\ncostly consequences of exit have not gained traction. Arguments discrediting\nthe original referendum by claiming the electorate was grossly misled, voters\ndid not appreciate what was at stake, and democracies have a perennial right to\nreconsider have backfired. Instead, Brexit supporters just view Remainers as \u201cbad\nlosers.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What must be done?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nessential challenge is to use the election to resolve the Brexit question,\nthereby clearing the way for the UK to engage the social democracy versus\nneoliberalism question. To that end, Labor and Liberal Democrats should\nannounce they will form a national unity government whose sole purpose will be\nto hold a second referendum on Boris Johnson\u2019s Brexit agreement. After a\nbreathing period following the referendum, the unity government will call a\nsecond election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such\nan agreement has Labor and Liberal Democrats giving up little since neither is\nlikely to form a majority government. Meanwhile, it transforms the election\ninto a de facto<\/em> referendum on whether\na second Brexit referendum is needed, which is a winnable proposition. It gives\nConservative Remainers reason to vote Liberal Democrat, or even Labor, knowing\nthe debate on social democracy versus neoliberalism is still to come. Likewise,\nit gives Liberal Democrats tactical reason to vote Labor, and vice-versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second,\nthe argument for another referendum needs a simple persuasive metaphor. The\nBrexit referendum was akin to a decision to drive north. The country was told\nthe road was in good condition. It now transpires the road leads over a political\nand economic cliff, making it sensible to reconsider. Arguing about the first\nreferendum\u2019s legitimacy has proven unpersuasive and should be avoided. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third,\nas part of a unity agreement, Labor candidates should step down in\nconstituencies Liberal Democrats can potentially win, and vice-versa. That is a\nstep further than the tactical voting campaigns of People\u2019s Vote and Best for\nBritain. It will be essential if the Conservatives and UKIP reach their own\ntactical accord on candidate stand-downs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nobstruction is pride and arrogance. Labor\u2019s pride blocks it from seeking an\nalliance, while Liberal Democrat arrogance has them thinking they should head\nthe unity government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A plea to Jeremy\nCorbyn<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr.\nCorbyn, as currently framed, Labor has much more to lose than to gain from the\nelection. If the Conservatives win, the UK will become a neoliberal hot zone\nand likely dissolve within a decade, social democracy will become a figment,\nand Labor will be permanently out of power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of\ncourse, you might pull-off a miracle win, but that smacks of a gambler\u2019s\nwishful thinking. The responsible choice is to transform the election into a\nreferendum on the need for a second Brexit referendum. That hugely increases your\nchances of winning, has Labor giving up little, and sets the stage for a\nsubsequent election which can confront the deeper question of social democracy\nversus neoliberalism. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I could not get this op-ed (written November 6, 2019) published as it was a mix of too dull & didactic, and too partisan or not partisan enough. Anyway, in the wake of the election, I think it was analytically spot on so I have decided to post it. Also, it makes clear the very […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-1"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1814"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1814\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1819,"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1814\/revisions\/1819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thomaspalley.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}